Questions around ORH modelling
Prior to the creation of the Resourcing to Risk proposal, independent analysis of the WFRS delivery model was completed by ORH.
Who are ORH and what do they do?
Opinion Research in Health Organisation (ORH) are an international evidenced based consultancy that specialise in emergency services.
What was the rationale for commissioning ORH and have staff been consulted?
ORH were commissioned to carry out an independent analysis of service data. The Fire Authority requested this to ensure independent scrutiny was carried out to inform robust data driven decisions. Cabinet on behalf of the Fire Authority have commissioned a public consultation on model 2A. As part of this consultation process comprehensive staff engagement is taking place.
What was ORH tasked with doing?
ORH were tasked with analysing our data and validating our risk analysis. This included data sets such as, incident demand and resource availability across a 5 year period. Through its risk analysis, WFRS identified that current resource levels (guaranteed appliance and personnel availability) do not reflect activity levels throughout a 24 hour period. In order to address this, the service developed a new working pattern which aims to guarantee the level of resource required to meet demand/activity levels throughout a 24 hour period. The new working pattern developed by WFRS is made up of day shifts, evening shifts and night shifts all of which are supported by surge teams. WFRS handed this working pattern to ORH and asked them to produce models using the new working pattern to show the best places to put day, evening and night shifts along with surge teams when considering activity levels and response times.
ORH were given different scenarios to model. The models produced by ORH vary according to different scenarios. The difference between the scenarios is the number of appliances in the day and night for example Option 2a was modelled on 12 appliances in the day (0800-2200) and 8 at night (2200-0800) with support from 8 surge teams, where as Option 1a was modelled on 13 pumps during the day, 8 at night and supported by 7 surge teams.
When ORH had produced the models, WFRS took them to Cabinet as delivery model options. All options are based on the working pattern developed by WFRS during the CRMP process and measure the impact of the scope we provided to ORH.
Have ORH worked with any other Fire and Rescue Services?
ORH work with UK and international fire and rescue services, you can find examples of case studies on the ORH website.
Who produced the potential models and how many were there?
ORH produced a number of models based on the scope given to them by WFRS. Some models required significant investment and others identified options to make savings. There is no new money nor a desire to make savings. Each model was considered against the performance criteria, (e.g. response times, guaranteed availability and WCC financial constraints). 2 models were considered appropriate to take to Cabinet (1, 2). Both of these options had an 'a' sub option (1a, 2a) which proposed to remove the DCP shift system). Those not taken to cabinet did either not meet the performance required or needed significant investment.
How long did it take ORH to carry out the work and how much did it cost?
Resourcing to Risk Programme – Summary Timeline
The WFRS Resourcing to Risk programme is planned over three phases as highlighted in the summary timeline below. The timeline from phase two onwards is provisional and dependent upon the outcome from the public consultation.
Phase one: Consultation and Governance
- Warwickshire County Council Cabinet approval: 9 November 2023
- Consultation open: 11 December 2023 – 10 March 2024
- Consultation analysis: March – May 2024
- Governance process: May – July 2024
- Decision: July 2024
- Consultation feedback: July – August 2024
Phase two: March 2024 – July 2024: Detailed development and design
Phase three: August 2024 onwards: Start of phased delivery
What is the Dynamic Cover Tool?
The Dynamic Cover Tool (DCT) is software that enables effective and efficient resource use. The service has been exploring the use of this system for some time but it is not conditionally linked to the Resourcing to Risk Programme.