Our context
Warwickshire is a fantastic place to live, work and do business. We have a strong economy, high life expectancy, and strong educational attainment. The social care sector employs around 15,550 people directly.
Ageing population
In Warwickshire, the number of people aged over 65 is predicted to grow to 145,500 in 2030 from a 2020 baseline of 122,000. We should rightly celebrate this, with life expectancy for men being 79.7 years and 83.4 years for women. Whilst many people remain independent and have good health, as we get older, we are more likely to develop health conditions and to experience frailty and the demand for adult social care support will increase accordingly.
1 in 10 of Warwickshire’s population is aged 75 and over.
By 2030, the number of residents aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 30% compared to the figure in 2020.
Population health
The health of our population is better than the England average. This is not though everyone’s experience and there are some people within our community whose health, independence and quality of life we can help to be better. There is a gap of 19.3 years for females and 17.6 years for males between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in Warwickshire. In areas of the county, with higher levels of deprivation, and amongst some groups such as people with learning disabilities, people can have poorer health and need more support. There are many things we and our partners can do to improve the health and wellbeing of these residents and with the increase in demand, it is vital that we do.
The council’s spend on adult social care has risen by 53% in five years, forecast to reach £227.1m in the 2024/25 financial year.
Increase in demand
We are seeing a rise in the number of elderly residents requiring social care support funded by the council. Alongside this, we are seeing an increase in the complexity of issues that our customers are experiencing. These impact on the level of care required and the mix of professionals involved in their care. By January 2025, we commissioned support for 7,662 individuals, an increase of 2.8% in the last 12 months, and 866 individuals more than August 2020.
Overall the number of people supported by WCC has increased by 13.1% since the end of the 2018/19 financial year.
9 The average weekly hours of a Domiciliary Care package has increased by 20 minutes since 2019.
The adult social care workforce
Staff across the adult social care workforce are our most important asset. Within WCC, our retention rates are good, and staff tell us that the council is a good place to work. We have been working hard to maintain our workforce and at times this is challenging as we compete with neighbouring authorities to attract the best people. Our adult social care providers also face challenges with recruitment and retention, and this can result in the increased use of agency staff. Whilst the market has grown its capacity through international recruitment there are also has challenges for some of our providers with progressing international recruitment effectively.
The vacancy rate of care workers in Warwickshire 5.7% in 2023/24.
The turnover rate of care workers in Warwickshire was 29.8% in 2023/24.
Market viability
In addition to workforce pressures, providers continue to report cost of living inflationary pressures. The combination of these issues is leading to an increase in the operational costs which are being passed on. With these pressures some providers have struggled with maintaining quality provision and viability. In a small number of cases this has resulted in withdrawal from the market or a hand back of packages of care.
452 packages of care were handed back during 2023/24. However zero providers closed due to financial failures.
Rising cost of care
The above challenges are resulting in a rise in the cost of care. This is happening across the country. These increases present a challenge in how we manage our social care services (considering increased demand also) and obtain best value. The average cost of all care home placements rose by 6.1% over the last 10 months. Only 28% of all residential placements and 11% of all nursing placements are at the framework rate.
By 2030, the number of residents aged 18 to 64 years predicted to have a moderate of severe learning disability is projected to increase 10%compared to the figure in 2020.