Population Forecast 65+
Warwickshire is experiencing a significant demographic shift, with its population aged 65 and over projected to grow from 122,000 in 2025 to 165,500 by 2045—an increase of over 35%. This ageing trend is accompanied by a sharp rise in the number of older adults predicted to be living with dementia, which is expected to grow from 9,701 in 2025 to 14,958 by 2045, representing a 54% increase.
These projections highlight the urgent need for a responsive and sustainable adult social care system. The rising prevalence of dementia and other long-term conditions will require:
- Expanded community-based support
- Dementia-friendly environments
- A skilled and resilient care workforce
- Integrated health and social care planning
While many older residents continue to enjoy active, independent lives, a growing number face increased risks of frailty, dependency, disability, and complex health needs. This includes conditions such as dementia, terminal illness, and falls, which are more prevalent among the oldest age groups.
Warwickshire’s overall health outcomes are above the national average, with men living on average 80.2 years and women 83.9 years. However, these outcomes are not evenly distributed across the county. In more deprived areas, residents experience shorter lifespans and spend a greater proportion of their lives in poor health. In contrast, those living in less deprived areas can expect to live significantly longer—over nine years more for men and five years more for women.
Moreover, while life expectancy has increased, so too has the duration of poor health in later life. On average, men in Warwickshire spend 17.6 years and women 19.3 years living with suboptimal health. These disparities are largely preventable and are closely linked to:
- Socioeconomic status
- Living and working conditions
- Lifestyle factors such as smoking, alcohol use, diet, and physical activity
In 2021, the leading causes of death among Warwickshire residents aged 65 and over were:
- Cancer
- Ischaemic heart disease (particularly among men)
- Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (particularly among women)
- COVID-19, which ranked third for both sexes
Many of these conditions offer opportunities for early intervention, prevention, and targeted support.
Certain groups—including those from ethnic minority backgrounds and lower socioeconomic communities—are disproportionately affected by poor health outcomes and face greater barriers to ageing well. Tackling these inequalities is essential to ensuring that all residents can live longer, healthier, and more fulfilling lives.
This Market Position Statement provides a strategic framework for understanding and responding to these challenges. It supports providers, commissioners, and stakeholders in shaping a care market that is:
- Inclusive of diverse needs
- Sustainable in the face of demographic change
- Person-centred, promoting independence and dignity
- Proactive, with a focus on prevention and early support