Autism Forecast
The table above projects the number of autistic adults aged 18–64 in Warwickshire between 2025 and 2045, providing a basis for future service, housing and support planning.
Latest local estimates suggest around 9,500 autistic people and 22,000 people with ADHD across Warwickshire, although these figures are likely to understate true prevalence because both autism and ADHD remain widely under-diagnosed. Many people have both diagnoses, with evidence indicating that 40–70% of people with either diagnosis are both autistic and have ADHD. NHS England » Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) Programme update
Research published in the Annual Review of Developmental Psychology (2025) estimates that 89% to 97% of autistic adults aged 40 and over in the UK remain undiagnosed. This means actual local need is likely to be higher than recorded prevalence, including among some people already accessing adult social care without a formal diagnosis.
The National Autistic Society describes autism as a lifelong neurodevelopmental difference affecting how people experience and interact with the world, including communication, social interaction, sensory processing, routine and structure. Autistic people have diverse strengths, needs and aspirations - What is autism.
The World Health Organization defines Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) as persistent patterns of inattention and/or hyperactivity-impulsivity that can affect education, work, social functioning, wellbeing, independence and quality of life.
Overall Trends
The number of autistic adults aged 18–64 in Warwickshire is projected to rise from around 3,725 in 2025 to 4,377 by 2045, an increase of 17.5%. This growth, alongside under-diagnosis and increasing identification, points to a need for autism-informed support across adulthood.
The strongest projected increases are in the 35–44 and 45–54 age groups, suggesting growing demand for mid-life support such as employment retention, mental health support, housing, social care and integrated health provision.
Younger adult groups show a more mixed pattern, while the 55–64 group is expected to rise again by 2045. This reinforces the importance of transition planning, early adulthood pathways and age-appropriate support for older autistic adults.
Implications for Planning
These projections underline the need for future housing, care and support to respond to an increasingly neurodiverse population. Provision should be accessible, adaptable and designed around residents’ needs, with staff equipped to deliver person-centred support that promotes independence, wellbeing and positive outcomes. There is a need for:
- Lifelong support pathways, Including robust transition pathways
- Workforce development to ensure professionals are equipped to understand and support autistic adults across different life stages.
- Inclusive housing and community services that promote independence and wellbeing.
- Integrated health and social care planning, especially for those with co-occurring conditions.
- Promoting awareness, understanding and acceptance is key to creating environments where autistic people can thrive, and Warwickshire to be a place where our communities are more inclusive and welcoming for autistic people, supported appropriately by codesigned, commissioned services.
- Improving access to neuro-affirmative, accessible day-time and overnight support, including day opportunities, short breaks, after-school provision, respite, and supported accommodation.
- Driving improvements in commissioning standards: embed neurodiversity informed practice, Reasonable Adjustment requirements, workforce training and lived experience involvement in all specifications and contracts
- Strengthening quality assurance of support delivered to autistic people and people with ADHD
- Adapting environments to be more sensory friendly and to meet individual needs of neurodivergent people
Examples of good practice documents are listed below:
A new autism awareness training video has been developed to support health and social care professionals, carers, and the wider community in better understanding of autism and how to create an inclusive environment for autistic people. The video offers an overview of the condition, insight into how autism can impact on a person’s ability to communicate, interact and perceive the world around them, and offer practical guidance on how to provide reasonable adjustments to create a sensory friendly environment: Resources - Happy Healthy Lives
South West Yorkshire Partnership NHS Foundation trust ‘Checklist for Autism-Friendly Environments'.
The NDTi summary on these considerations is available to read - Supporting autistic people flourishing at home and beyond | NDTi.