18-64 Population Forecast
The table above presents projected changes in the population aged 18–64 across Warwickshire, alongside key health and care-related indicators, from 2025 through to 2045. These projections highlight a steady increase in the working-age population and a corresponding rise in the prevalence of various health and support needs, underscoring the importance of forward-thinking service planning and resource allocation.
Population Growth
The total population aged 18–64 is projected to grow from 374,600 in 2025 to 436,300 by 2045—an increase of over 16%. This growth reflects broader demographic shifts and has significant implications for health and social care services, employment, and housing.
Mental Health
Mental health remains an important priority for market development. The number of adults aged 18–64 predicted to experience mental health problems is expected to rise from 26,964 in 2025 to 31,409 by 2045. This represents a 16% increase, highlighting the growing demand for mental health services and the need for integrated, accessible support systems.
The Coventry and Warwickshire Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) emphasises the profound impact of poor mental health across the region, particularly among younger adults and women—groups disproportionately affected in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. National strategies such as the Five Year Forward View for Mental Health, the NHS Long Term Plan, and the National Suicide Prevention Strategy reinforce the urgency of embedding mental health within broader recovery and prevention frameworks.
Mental Health and Wellbeing of 0–25-Year Olds
Various factors impact the mental health of Warwickshire’s children and young people. All local partners and organisations have a shared responsibility to enhance their mental health and wellbeing. To prevent adverse mental health outcomes, services and practitioners engaging with this demographic should actively contribute to positive mental health strategies. The rise in mental health conditions, coupled with the anticipated population growth in the 0–25 age group, suggests a likely increase in mental health incidents.
Consequently, recommendations from the JSNA should guide future commissioning activities, addressing capacity and demand concerns. Recognising the strong link between physical and mental health, services should adopt a holistic approach, considering both aspects for optimal outcomes. The Millennium Cohort Study highlights the significance of addressing high Body Mass Index (BMI) in youth to prevent later mental health challenges.
To enhance mental health and wellbeing, emphasis should be on protective factors and proactive measures, intervening early to prevent deterioration. The 2022 NHS Mental Health of Children and Young People survey reveals a concerning 36.8% self-reported loneliness among 11-16-year-olds, underscoring the need to bolster social support networks. Engagement mapping in Warwickshire identifies persistent social stigma around mental health among children and young people, necessitating targeted efforts to address and eliminate this stigma.
Learning Disabilities
The number of adults aged 18–64 with a learning disability is projected to increase from 9,102 in 2025 to 10,582 by 2045. Within this group, those with moderate or severe learning disabilities are expected to rise from 2,076 to 2,420 over the same period. These increases reflect both population growth and improved identification and diagnosis, and they signal a need for sustained investment in specialist support services, inclusive education, and employment opportunities.
Autism and ADHD
We are committed to improving outcomes for autistic people and people with ADHD by:
- Supporting autistic people and people with ADHD to live independent and fulfilling lives.
- Reducing health inequalities.
- Preventing unnecessary admissions to mental health inpatient settings.
- Ensuring services are co-produced with autistic people, families and carers.
Key trends include:
- Improved understanding and awareness of autism and ADHD.
- Increasing numbers of autism and ADHD referrals and diagnoses.
- Growing demand for appropriate and timely pre and post-diagnostic support.
- Higher prevalence of co-occurring mental health needs.
- Higher prevalence of people not accessing health support due to sensory and communication differences.
- Increasing demand for supported living and community-based preventative services.
- Improved recognition of autism and ADHD in adults, women and people from diverse communities.
Personal Care Disabilities
Projections for personal care needs show a gradual increase in both moderate and severe disabilities:
Moderate personal care disabilities are expected to rise from 15,167 in 2020 to 17,893 by 2045.
Severe personal care disabilities are projected to increase from 3,319 to 3,907 over the same period.
These trends suggest a growing demand for adult social care services, including domiciliary care, supported living, and adaptations to housing. Ensuring that services are equipped to meet these needs will be vital to maintaining independence and quality of life for affected individuals.
These projections illustrate a clear and growing demand for health and social care services across Warwickshire’s adult population. The increasing prevalence of mental health issues, learning disabilities, and personal care needs calls for a coordinated, proactive approach to service planning. Investment in prevention, early intervention, and integrated care models will be essential to meet the evolving needs of the population and to ensure that individuals can lead healthy, independent, and fulfilling lives.