Sustainable Warwickshire

In 2019 (our baseline year) the county’s greenhouse gas emissions were 5,701,000 tonnes of CO2e, having reduced by 21% since 2005. The biggest sources of emissions are from transport and industry, followed by the domestic and commercial sectors, with the public sector making up the smallest proportion. Transport and industrial emissions in the county have remained largely static, whilst those from domestic and commercial buildings have steadily decreased.

2020 was an exceptional year due to the COVID-19 outbreak and the associated lockdowns. During this time emissions fell by 12% compared with 2019, with a 20% year on year reduction from the transport sector alone. However, total emissions have risen since then to 5,499,000 tonnes of CO2e in 2021, although this is still 3% below 2019 levels.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) produce annual greenhouse gas estimates for individual local authority areas as well as for the UK as a whole. The table below uses this data to show the differences across Warwickshire’s five district and boroughs (all figures are tCO2).

Our county-wide target to be net zero by 2050 is aligned with the UK’s legal commitment to deliver net zero by 2050. National reduction targets are set at five-yearly intervals, referred to as a carbon budget. To date the UK has met the budgets set but these will become increasingly more ambitious to achieve.

By mapping the following developments in Warwickshire, we can identify the impact on our emissions and therefore how much more we need to do to support these national budgets:

• Grid electricity decarbonisation as projected by DESNZ will reduce emissions.
• Planned increases in new housing and non-domestic properties to meet the Local Plans of the District and Boroughs will see increases in emissions by 2050, although these are less than otherwise due to technological advances in heating. Based on current baselines, National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios (FESs) show demand for natural gas heating in homes decreasing by 18% by 2030 and 99% by 2050, and for commercial and industrial buildings by 11% by 2030 and 95% by 2050.
• Likely decarbonisation of the transport sector due in part to the electrification of registered vehicles and adoption of alternative fuels such as hydrogen will reduce emissions.

Under all scenarios, we expect that there will be residual emissions remaining in 2050 which we will look to balance through nature based or other forms of greenhouse gas removals. We will explore and identify these as we move towards 2050.