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Homepage > Demographic and Social Research

Population Projections

Population projections and population forecasts are used by a wide range of organisations but particularly local government for a variety of service planning activities.

The Office for National Statistics produce sub-national population projections for Counties, Unitary Authorities and local authority districts.

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) published the latest set of long-term sub-national population projections for local authorities on 21 March 2012. The 2010-based population projections are trend-based projections, based upon the indicative 2010 mid-year estimates. The projections provide an indication of expected trends in population growth for the period 2010 to 2035 should recent demographic trends continue into the future. Assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels over the previous five years. They take no account of any policy decisions, particularly relating to planning policy, which may affect population growth and change.

Currently, there are no projections or forecasts available for areas below district level.


2010 Based Subnational Population Projections

The population of Warwickshire is projected to reach a total of 658,900 by 2035 – an increase of 120,000 people or 22.3% on the 2010 ONS mid-year estimate. This increase over the 25 year period is higher than the projected regional and national population growth rates of 18.2% and 18.9% respectively

Within Warwickshire, population is projected to increase most in Rugby Borough between 2010 and 2035 (30.0%) followed by Stratford-on-Avon (24.0%), Warwick District (23.4%), and Nuneaton & Bedworth (18.8%). North Warwickshire is projected to experience the smallest rate of growth at 10.9%.

Across Warwickshire as a whole, the highest rates of projected population growth are in the groups aged 65 and over. The rate of growth at these older ages increases with age, with the eldest age group (those aged 85 and over) projected to increase by over 190% by 2035. This trend is reflected across all the districts and boroughs.

For more information view the briefing note below.
  • 2010-based Subnational Population Projections for Warwickshire Briefing Note - PDF, 289KB
  • Excel workbook detailing the Subnational projections, by District and quinary age group - Excel, 99KB
  • 2010-based Subnational Population Projections for England Briefing Note - PDF, 123KB







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